Due to ongoing climate change, the energy industry has to cope with major issues. Low-carbon energies have to grow rapidly in the coming decades to avoid exceeding the 2°C threshold (and try to remain below 1.5°C). This rapid transition towards renewables makes the energy production, transmission and distribution increasingly sensitive to weather and climate variability. In this context, energy producers need to anticipate resources, their variability at seasonal timescales and their trends over decades. Grid operators need to identify black-out risks. Electricity traders need to anticipate energy prices depending on the availability of combined resources. Climate change also modulates the weather impact to energy systems. Changing precipitation patterns may affect the management of hydropower resources. Changes in winds, temperature and radiation may affect the variable renewable resources. Investments for infrastructures and networks, refining and distribution must account for unavoidable climate change effects such as future sea level rise. Extreme events have changing occurrence frequencies, inducing a shift in associated risks.
CLIM4ENERGY brings together the complementary expertise of 7 climate research and service centers and 9 energy practitioners to demonstrate, from an ensemble of case studies, the value chain from climate observations and model simulations to actionable information in the energy sector. It will deliver 10 energy-relevant pan-European indicators of climate trends and variability with a cross-sectoral consistency, appropriate documentation and guidance, estimation of uncertainties, and a demonstration of use.
Case studies of use of seasonal forecasts of wind power, hydro power, bio-energy harvest conditions, demand-generation electricity load balance indicators are provided. Climate projections of relevant weather variables, together with indicators of wind and hydro power production, demand-generation electricity, extreme events such as freezing rain, operating conditions in wood production, and phenomena affecting risks for offshore oil and gas assets with easy access and visualization are proposed.
The project builds upon a community of experts both from the climate science, weather centers and industry. It is organised by thematic clusters led by one of the project partners.